Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.343513 11.552441 12.905337 14.543394 16.489079 18.746769 21.595034
2025-04-13 8.467973 9.934838 11.698149 14.010567 17.019933 20.887813 26.382151
2025-04-20 8.133320 9.923820 12.205072 15.406068 19.923433 26.312506 36.530240
2025-04-27 7.571191 9.501267 12.066762 15.854597 21.549815 30.261384 45.706287
2025-05-04 6.827732 8.732802 11.339570 15.328172 21.605774 31.787796 51.363041
2025-05-11 6.485397 8.464239 11.257518 15.701810 23.065108 35.848920 62.974322
2025-05-18 6.045596 8.009662 10.847559 15.499753 23.523626 38.241911 72.198172
2025-05-25 5.675051 7.619477 10.488153 15.319886 23.969063 40.686205 82.598711
2025-06-01 5.382618 7.318428 10.231647 15.268509 24.621196 43.680821 95.864727
2025-06-08 5.053049 6.936013 9.812785 14.887826 24.585445 45.205353 105.979033
2025-06-15 4.834033 6.706389 9.615919 14.867753 25.241389 48.436268 123.320184
2025-06-22 4.522218 6.312864 9.123229 14.265326 24.626134 48.516865 130.254249
2025-06-29 4.209906 5.912041 8.609222 13.609633 23.883342 48.311446 137.020431
2025-07-06 3.953826 5.587475 8.202543 13.119286 23.435615 48.803768 147.359790
2025-07-13 4.025871 5.790785 8.698276 14.389669 27.090218 61.676289 229.228848
2025-07-20 3.947307 5.741217 8.750734 14.796975 28.851079 69.923094 305.536308
2025-07-27 3.741110 5.467511 8.386750 14.318878 28.360498 70.742457 334.779344
2025-08-03 3.669268 5.415260 8.415749 14.658278 30.007865 79.668174 453.890820
2025-08-10 3.530010 5.240569 8.209100 14.474775 30.250114 83.606369 542.570594
2025-08-17 3.403268 5.081065 8.020295 14.311347 30.522352 87.851009 656.473432
2025-08-24 3.300072 4.957257 7.890244 14.264652 31.118510 93.816160 834.972346
2025-08-31 3.166308 4.774020 7.637217 13.918475 30.792574 95.607011 959.083655
2025-09-07 3.080427 4.671297 7.532004 13.900213 31.443128 102.393971 1267.681307